Ukraine has increased its imports of gas from Europe since Russian transit flows stopped on 1 January. Diverging positions between the US and Europe on the conflict have increased the uncertainty over transit resumption or further supply reductions.
Despite a surge in LNG supplies to Europe since the start of the year, European storage is now 26 bcm below year ago levels. Although the first third of March will be warm, colder weather is forecast by mid-month and the European gas price premium over Asia has fallen from the levels which created the Jan/Feb surge.
The Summer25/Winter25 spread has fallen but the summer premium continues to cast a question mark over the injection season as trade wars create further uncertainty over the economic outlook.
We’ll be updating our Summer25 gas and power market scenarios for our Spring update in Como on 4 April – message or email me for details: peter@albasoluzioni.com